Market data · Sevier County
What Smoky Mountain rentals actually earn.
Market wide ADR, occupancy, RevPAR, and average stay value for Pigeon Forge, Gatlinburg, and Sevierville. These are county averages across every unit size and location, not the numbers for one property. The headline figures and the last three years are free to read below. A free account opens every month on record, custom date ranges, and an underwriting sandbox. Proof, not projections.
The numbers
Sevier County short-term rental performance, market wide
Market data is being refreshed. Call (865) 333-2682 and I will walk you through the current numbers.
Market figures come from third-party short-term rental data for Sevier County and are provided as-is, without any warranty of accuracy or completeness. Past performance does not predict future results, and county-wide averages are not a projection for any specific property. Full disclaimer.
Straight talk
What this trend means if you are buying today
Revenue per available night in this county has come down five years running. Anyone selling you a Smoky Mountain rental on 2021 numbers is selling you a projection. Here is how I underwrite a deal in a market that is softening.
Underwrite at 52 percent, not 68
Use the occupancy the market is actually producing right now, in the current year, not the best year on record. If the deal only works at peak-era occupancy, it is not a deal.
Buy the spread, not the average
These are county-wide averages across every unit size and location. Top-quartile properties with a view, real amenities, and professional photos run well above this line. That gap is where the money is.
A soft market is when you buy well
More inventory and less competition from other buyers means you have leverage on price and terms. The risk is paying peak-market prices for trough-market revenue.
Demand has not disappeared. Nightly rate is holding, which means people are still paying to be here. The question is whether a specific property earns enough nights at that rate to cover what it costs you, and that is a question about one address, not about a county.
How to read it
- 01
Summer pays, but fall and Christmas are close
June and July are the top earning months, and October and December are not far behind on the seasonality index. A property that only works in summer is a property that sits for half the year.
- 02
January and February decide who survives
Occupancy falls off hard in the first two months. Your reserve, not your peak, is what carries a property through the winter.
- 03
Rate went up faster than occupancy
Supply caught up in the boom years. Nightly rates have kept climbing, but the share of nights booked has been flatter, which is exactly why RevPAR is the number to watch instead of ADR.
- 04
Averages are not your property
A market average blends a tired two bedroom with a new build that has a view and a game room. Your ridge, your amenities, and your photos move you well above or well below this line.
Keep reading: Is a Smoky Mountain STR worth it · Cabin vs condo vs chalet · Run your real net
Next step
The market average is not your deal.
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